New polls confirm opposition’s lead

According to a survey by the Estymator Institute commissioned by Newsweek Polska, the Civic Platform of Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz can count on a 28 per cent support.

The survey shows a downward trend in support for an emerging movement launched by rock musician Paweł Kukiz, who won over 20 percent of the vote in the first round of the presidential election in May.

Now, only six percent of the respondents are ready to vote for his movement. The only other party likely to enter Parliament according to the polls is the Polish People’s Party (PSL), a junior partner in the present ruling coalition, with six percent.

United Left – with the same support – would not get into the Parliament, because an eight percent threshold applies for political coalitions to gain parliamentary representation. In the case of parties, the threshold is five percent.

If translated into the number of seats in the 460-seat lower house, the conservatives would have 256 seats, and would therefore command a majority and be able to form a government on their own.

The Estymator survey was conducted on 13-14 August, on a representative sample of 1,088 adult Poles, using computer-assisted telephone interviews.

In another survey, carried by IBRiS for the Rzeczpospolita daily, the conservative coalition has received 36 per cent of the vote, 10 percentage points more than the ruling Civic Platform.

According to the survey, four other parties would be represented in Parliament: United Left, the Polish People’s Party, the Kukiz movement and Nowoczesna.pl led by the liberal economist Ryszard Petru. (mk/rg/rk)